The first scientific polling data after the August 6th 2016 Republican debate has been released and things aren’t looking good for Donald Trump (Rasmussen Reports). The polling results almost perfectly mirror the predictions made in YLiberty’s post-debate analysis.
Trump dropped from 26% down to 17%, though he still maintains “a lead” among Republicans. The drop is likely due to his poor performance in the debate in which he refused to rule out running as an independent (which would hand the nomination to Hilary Clinton), feuded with fellow candidate Rand Paul, insulted moderator Megyn Kelly (ironically enough in response to a question about why he insults women), and generally offered no substantive policy solutions.
The drop is likely the beginning of Trump’s implosion and comes as no surprise to those who actually understand politics, unlike the talking heads on cable news. Renowned data scientist and election predictor Nate Silver recently called Trump the “Nickleback of GOP Candidates“, pointing out that while he had the highest “first choice” percentage among Republican voters, he was among the least well liked among Republicans overall. Trump’s support is also almost entirely among low-information voters (a nice way of saying idiots). So he was never really a serious candidate for the nomination.
The largest gains in polling numbers came from the two candidates YLiberty crowned winners of the two debates (one at 5 pm and one at 9 pm.) Carly Fiorina jumped a massive 8% while Marco Rubio doubled his percentage from 5% to 10%. Rand Paul, Ben Carson, and Chris Christie also saw small gains with the rest of the candidates dipping slightly or remaining constant.
As Donald Trump’s numbers continue to decline, his supporters are likely to be distributed among the remaining candidates giving a truer competition regarding who voters would like to be the Republican nominee. The same phenomenon happened with fringe candidates Herman Cain and Michele Bachman in the 2012 Republican Primary when both achieved temporary surges in the polls only to burn out fast and have little lasting impact.
Full results from the post-debate poll, including changes from prior polling, can be seen below.